Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Remembrance Day

November 11 2008 marks the 90th anniversary of the end of World War 1, the war to end all wars.

We are brought up to respect this day and honour all those soldiers who lost their lives in battle defending our freedom. And rightly so.

Unfortunately Armistice Day didn’t end all wars. The wars kept happening and even more disturbing is that the number of civilian casualties in subsequent wars has increased exponentially.*

In WW1 the percentage of civilian deaths was 47% of total casualties.
In WW2 the percentage of civilian deaths was around 56%
The Vietnam War saw civilian deaths of at least 50% (some estimate many more)
The first Gulf War saw at least 4 times the number of civilian casualties over military deaths. (400%)
The current Iraq War has seen civilian deaths outweigh military deaths by at least 10 to 1.**

In Australia we celebrate ANZAC Day and Remembrance Day every year and have the image of the Aussie ‘digger’ planted firmly into our consciousness. Parades are held and ceremonies conducted. RSL clubs all over the country have a one minute silence every day to remember the fallen.

I find it interesting that governments have never proposed the idea of a day to commemorate civilian deaths resulting from war. The millions of innocent men, women and children who were and are terrorized, bombed and shot while just going about their day to day routine, killed in markets, schools, temples, in their homes and on the streets.

We console ourselves by thinking of them as ‘the enemy’. Faceless people in far off places. I have heard people say things like “You can’t make an omelette without breaking a few eggs”. How would we feel if thousands of Australians were killed in the streets or in their schools by an invading force?

We honour our soldiers and herald them as heroes for their sacrifice. But what of the civilians? You’d think that so many millions who have innocently died as a result of war would deserve at least one minute of silence if not a day of remembrance. Or would that make us face the realities of combat and make us reluctant to follow our leaders into the next battle zone?

Lest We Forget.

*While there is always historical debate about casualty numbers I have taken averages from a number of sources which even after debate still point to a marked increase in the percentage of civilian deaths.
**Some will argue that this is the result of a different form of warfare since World War 1 and is caused by militants using human shields and hiding in civilian areas. But they also claim to have far more accurate weaponry which is supposedly designed to minimize civilian deaths.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Democracy works...

What a relief. Obama won. The people came out and the votes were counted. My fears were completely unfounded.

America will have a new president in January.

So now everyone can relax.

I can relax too and I have two months to sit and ponder a few things. Like what will happen to Iraq? How will the terrorists react to a new president? Where is Osama Bin Laden? Will the Patriot Act be repealled? Will the prisoners in Guantanamo Bay be released? Will the Wall Street crooks be punished for their irresponsibility? Will the oil companies give up on controlling the oil in Iran? Will Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and Powell be held accountable for lying about the weapons of mass destruction? Or is 'change' just a catchy campaign slogan?

I'm sure everything will be just fine.

Late Mail

9.20am Australian EDST

The 2008 US election is a very strange affair.

The Republicans, who in the past have demonstrated no mercy when it comes to elections have completely failed to come up with a last minute attack on Obama. No Bin Laden videos, no Swift Boat revelations, no dark secrets being uncovered. What could this mean? Bush and Cheney have proven themselves almost tyrannical leaders that don't take defeat easily. They haven't even finished their mission to control the Middle East, so what is going on?

Three options:
a) They have finally admitted defeat in the face of public opposition and will concede a landslide victory to Obama.

b) They want Obama to win because he has quietly agreed to continue their imperialistic agenda for them.

or

c) They are about to unleash the biggest and most ruthless voter fraud ever and steal the election for McCain fully expecting mass rioting and chaos that they can bring under control with their new, but untested Martial Law legislation. The FEMA detention camps could finally get their first tenants.

Let's hope the answer is a)

See you on the other side.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Updates below

I've added some updates and links to my previous post "Looking Into My Cynical Ball". If only I could predict the Melbourne Cup as accurately.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

False Economy

I’ve stated many times that I’m not very good with money. I’ve never understood the money market, banks or economics. One of the biggest barriers to my understanding was always that making money from interest, property investments, speculation and shares didn’t seem to make sense to me. There didn’t seem to be any explanation for where all the money would come from to fund all this ‘growth’. It all seemed like a dodgy magic trick. How do you make money from nothing? Physics tells us that matter cannot be destroyed it can only change form. Economics seemed to be based on the completely opposite principle, that is, more money can be created from less money. And so I resigned myself to the fact that greater minds than mine were obviously in control and I just felt stupid and avoided getting involved.

Now, as most of the world heads into recession it is revealed that the cause of the crisis was financial wizards who thought they could make money from nothing, selling bad loans as if they were worth something and convincing people to live beyond their means. It turns out the money to fund all this wasn’t actually there. Unbelievable! I was right. How is that possible?

If I, who know nothing about economics, could see a basic flaw in the system, how is it that all of the bankers, financial advisors, treasurers, economists, investors and stockbrokers in the world didn’t see this coming? Surely, anyone with a basic understanding of the system would have known this was going to happen. Surely the risk managers and insurance brokers would have a plan in place for such an eventuality. Apparently not. Everyone seems to have been blindsided by this. Could the entire worldwide financial industry really be that short sighted and stupid?

And even scarier is the response from governments around the world. A total knee jerk reaction throwing billions of dollars into a financial black hole. Each weekend a new ‘bailout’ package is proposed and the stock market jumps on Monday. Then on Tuesday it all falls again because the money isn’t really fixing the problem it’s just trying to stop people panicking. But does anyone ask where all these billions of dollars are going? I’m willing to bet it’s going into someone’s pockets and it won’t be the people who are losing their homes.

The US bailout package was fascinating. In order to get it through congress the bill evolved from a three page document outlining the allocation of funds to bolster the banking industry to a 450 page bill with hundreds of add-on deal sweeteners to win over voting congressmen. Sweeteners like tax breaks for makers of wooden arrows for children and tax breaks for motor racing tracks. Nothing to do with the bailout, just bribes to get the bill passed. And it worked.

Even crazier is that the bailout didn’t pay out the bad mortgages which were at the heart of the problem but rather the US government bought the debts which still have to be paid off. Effectively they are buying bad loans. If I’m not mistaken, it was the selling of bad loans that caused this mess in the first place? Clearly those ‘greater minds than mine’ have it under control.

So now governments everywhere are buying stakes in banks and centralising regulations. The ‘free market’ proponents and politicians who always argue that government should not interfere with business are clamouring for government help and taxpayer dollars and they’re not even pausing to feel like total hypocrites, even for a second.

How could all of these people really have been unaware of this crisis? How could people whose business it is to make money from this system really be caught short? How could a world banking system that has existed for hundreds of years drop the ball so badly? The only logical answer is that they didn’t drop the ball. They weren't unaware. The people in the know and who saw this coming won’t be losing their houses. They will be rolling in billions of dollars from taxpayer bailouts and clever accounting loopholes. They will rake in the money that everyone else is losing. They will gain power and profits from a new monetary system that will be hastily created to ‘avoid this happening again’ and they will get to work on the next big financial scam that will rob the world of any wealth it has left. Sound cynical and ridiculous? Well, what would I know? I don’t understand economics.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Money Money Money

The US financial market is in meltdown but Bush and his mates are coming to the rescue.

The proposed bailout is currently $700 Billion dollars. It has been said that the full extent of the bailout could extend to one trillion dollars. No biggie? To put the difference between a million, a billion and a trillion in perspective:

A million seconds is 12 days.
A billion seconds is 31 years.
A trillion seconds is 31,688 years.

and...



A trillion is a LOT of money, but one trillion is nothing when you realise that the US national debt is curently over $9.5 Trillion and the day before September 11, 2001 Donald Rumsfeld confessed that the Pentagon couldn't account for $2.3 Trillion dollars.

I'm not quite sure how a country that is in debt to the tune of $9.5 Trillion and that 'misplaced' $2.3 Trillion is able to bail out bankrupt businesses for another trillion.

I think I need a new bank manager.

I guess we'll wait and see what happens but by my calculations none of this adds up. The only thing I remember from accounting class at high school was that if something comes out of the credit column it must show up in the debit column which means the money has to go somewhere. My question is whose pockets did the $9.5 trillion dollars go into?

P.S. Do you suppose this massive financial crisis could lead to a suspended election? (see my previous post)

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Looking Into My Cynical Ball

ORIGINALLY POSTED August 14, 2008

Two posts in a week? What is going on?

I thought I’d take this opportunity to lock in some predictions for the future. I don’t claim to be a prophet or psychic, but I am a cynic. I also don’t claim to be an economic or political expert but quite a few of my previous predictions have come true so I thought I would put my current forecasts on the record backed up only by a hunch and a creepy feeling of history repeating.

The optimistic side of my brain hopes I’m wrong but here’s what I reckon will unfold over the next few years.

The economic slump I predicted in Australia is unfolding (I was a year off. I said 2007). This will see house prices slowing or falling and many in the mortgage belt going to the wall thanks to massive debts they were encouraged to take on over the last 10 years (anyone want to buy a second-hand plasma TV?). The rich, of course will be fine. The good news is that Today Tonight will have plenty of Aussie battlers being thrown out of their homes to report on. You might also see some great bargains on flats and apartments as people give up their investment properties.

We will see swings to the Liberals in most states (like the recent NT elections) and the upcoming WA election might just go to the Libs even with the recent change of leader.
****UPDATE - Labor has been ousted after a very close election****


The Rudd government will not be able to do much about the slowing economy that they have inherited. The mining boom will slow once China demands cheaper iron ore. ***UPDATE Read this story.
Closer to the next Federal election Peter Costello will emerge from his convenient exile (who was it that encouraged everyone to borrow and spend?) and claim that he can rescue the economy as it was running well while he was in control. He will become leader if he can push Malcolm Turnbull’s ego out of the way.
****UPDATE - .Peter Costello has stepped out of contention and Malcolm Turnbull has taken over the leadership of the Liberal opposition. As I predicted, Mr Costello will wait for Malcolm to become unpopular and will throw his hat back into the ring closer to the election.****

We will see an increasing push for the creation of an Asian Pacific Union, much like the EU. Possibly the tough economic times will be used as an excuse for this but get ready for a combined currency (probably starting with a merger with NZ). ***UPDATE: I've since found evidence that this plan is already underway but in its early stages.

Fuel prices will steady for a short while until everyone calms down and then in six months or so another war or disaster in the Middle East will force the price up again to $2 a litre. Everyone will freak out but will feel better when it drops back to $1.80 even though its 30c more than we were paying before the crisis. (Sound like a familiar scenario? It’s the same pattern we’ve seen for the last 20 years.)

The climate change problem will be magically fixed once Carbon Taxes are successfully introduced. (You don’t think they really want you to stop using fossil fuels do you?) The words ‘climate change’ will disappear from our TVs and we’ll go about our lives just like we did after the nuclear threat in the 80s and the Greenhouse fears of the early 90s. And what did ever happen to SARS and the Avian Flu?

The US elections will go one of two ways. If Barack Obama gets elected there will, no doubt, be an assassination attempt on him. A couple of people have already been arrested on suspicion of trying this and God knows that in America, gun-toting nutcases are seldom a ‘one-off, isolated case’. ***UPDATE It's started Not sure which way this will swing the election.

The other possible eventuality (and this is for the hardcore cynics) is that the US election will be postponed or canceled due to some kind of national emergency that will require Mr Bush to declare martial law and test out the Patriot Act and new continuance of government legislation. No doubt the emergency will involve domestic terrorists or a biological threat that will blamed on Russia or Iran and conveniently give them an excuse to invade and take control of some more major oil supplies. ***UPDATE: The US got to have its election and Obama is still alive.

The bad news is, even if Obama gets through unscathed Iran will still be attacked based on some hyped up nuclear threat. He has already pretty much admitted that he’s happy to attack. ***UPDATE: There is unlikely to be any change in US policy towards Iran.

Also get ready for a major change on the internet. New, faster services will get introduced but they will only give you access to ‘approved’ or monitored websites. This will be brought in under the guise of protecting children from paedophiles and pornography or stopping terrorists after a sudden spate of ‘shocking’ incidents.
***UPDATE: It's worse than I thought. They are going to censor the net and not even give us the faster speeds as a trade off.
Emails will be subject to surveillance and will possibly become a charged service requiring the purchase of a virtual ‘stamp’. (There is speculation about this in IT circles and my next blog will address privacy issues of the future)

On the positive side, the emerging trend of ‘buying locally’ and farmers’ markets will continue to grow and communities will start to band together again out of necessity. Tough economic times bring people together and reset our priorities. See? it ain’t all bad.

So there you go. Let’s hope I’m wrong. I’m happy to be so. I will post links to evidence on each of these points as they either unfold or become unfounded.

Stay tuned.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

The Devil Went Down to Georgia

Once again I have to apologise for my slackness in posting to my blog. My writing efforts have been recently redirected to other projects and the poor old blog has suffered as a consequence.

In lieu of new blog articles I’ve decided to at least keep the blog active by posting links to interesting news articles that might otherwise slip under the radars of most people. I get the feeling that some very interesting times are ahead with an imminent economic downturn and a looming US election. Rather than editorialising about my views and predictions I’ll leave it up to you to put the pieces together.
Enjoy:

While the world is watching the gold medals being given out in Beijing there is actually other stuff happening around the world.

There’s this report from the news.com.au:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24166750-401,00.html

But then there’s this from Russian news:
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28824

But what’s really going on I wonder?:
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-08-11-voa65.cfm

Then, to really get the brain going there’s this. It isn’t a news article but rather, an interesting observation by a gamer. Curiouser and curiouser.
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread380280/pg1

Of course it wouldn’t be the first time an event was pre-empted by writers:
http://www.plaguepuppy.net/public_html/Lone%20Gunmen/The_Lone_Gunmen_Episode_1.htm

Strange days indeed.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Tempted By The Apple

OK. Enough already. I’m sick of hearing about how it changed your life. I’m sick of hearing about how great it is. I’m sick of having it rammed down my throat. I’m sick of having to justify my beliefs to you. I’m sick of the stickers on the back of your cars. Praise it all you want. Worship what you like. Stop trying to convert me. For the final time, I’m saying it to everyone. I do not want to buy a Mac computer!

Forget religion and politics. If you really want to start an argument, tell a Mac user that you prefer your PC.

They can’t believe it. Why wouldn’t I want to be saved? Why would I want to spend eternity being frustrated by a clunky operating system and a looking at a user interface that isn’t ‘pretty’? Why wouldn’t I want to be ‘cool’ like everyone else? Has the Dark Lord Bill Gates taken my soul?

No. I just don’t want to buy a Mac. It’s that simple and I refuse to be swayed by what I call “The Mac Delusion”.

The Mac has become the choice of the hip and the powerful. It has become quite an elitist tool, which I find weird because Apple, the company, was started by hippies with good intentions to create a better computer. They were the repressed underdogs battling to keep their faith under the weight of the IBM and Microsoft oligarchy. They had a small but loyal following that remained faithful. Then gradually, over time, new Mac shops started appearing. The salespeople became slicker and more charismatic. The old OS was given a new, more accessible look. Suddenly thousands started flocking to the Mac. A new generation of followers, lured by shiny new cases and groovy interfaces was born. Visions of Macs were mysteriously appearing around the world on TV shows and in movies. Computers were becoming cool. This created a new type of computer user, a new social phenomenon; the fundamentalist Mac user. They are dogmatic. The awe and wonder they bestow upon their machines and their constant need to try and convert ‘non-believers’ borders on the fanatical. Their faith cannot be swayed. They believe they have the one true platform and all others are to be denied. But it does seem to cost them a lot of money.

I always question why Mac users have to give so much money to Apple. They tell me it’s so that Apple can continue its good work. They happily pay the money because the Mac works so well for them. Sure they work. You pull it out of the box, plug it in and there it is, ready to go. The all-in-one solution. And so it bloody should work? This isn’t a miracle, it’s a reasonable expectation. My friends who have ‘seen the light’ and converted to the Mac always have the same story. After battling unhappiness with their PCs for many years the Mac offered them ease and simplicity, peace of mind.
Fair enough, but not one of them stopped to realise that they only spent $1000 on their PC and just spent $2500 on their Mac. The truth is, if they spent the same money on a PC, it would work too. And if you only use Microsoft programs on your PC it will stay stable as well. But people don’t. When they buy a PC they abuse it and treat it badly. They fill it with sins. Downloaded games, cracked and pirated software, shareware and four billion email attachments. No wonder it jacks up and flips you the blue screen bird.

When people finally buy a Mac they treat it much better. They have to. They can only get certified programs to run on it and it costs them a fortune. Buying into a Mac means shutting out all that bad stuff so it never gets in. The computer remains pure. But it automatically denies alternatives. What if there are better ideas out there? Why close yourself off from all other programs? Who says you have all the computing solutions? Do you really want to live in your ‘safe’ little world forever?

‘Oh, but you can run Windows on a Mac now’ is the automatic defence. You can? Wow. I can run Windows on my PC too. What’s your point?

To be fair, the PC isn’t a perfect solution either. I, like most PC users, think Bill Gates deserves to spend eternity in the fires of Hell being taunted by a giant paper clip that just keeps saying ‘it looks like you are trying to write a letter…’

For now I’m happy in the PC world. I have no need to convert and at the end of the day I just want a computer to do the tasks I want it to do. It doesn’t need to look cool or be ‘fun for the kids’ and it certainly shouldn’t keep costing me money. It just needs to do the job. If you want a fashion accessory, buy a purse. But please stop trying to convince me that I need to spend thousands of dollars to do the same thing I’m doing now, but look cooler doing it.

So make up your own mind. Don’t be lured just because someone tells you there is an ‘easier’ or ‘better’ way. Compute your way. And remember, the reason we are all here, in this mess in the first place, is because Eve was tempted by an Apple.